Dubai Frame
Good morning from Newmarket. There is a wintry feeling in the air today, although we are fortunate that the colder spells are being punctuated by some bright sunshine. We are relatively quiet on runners in the coming days, but send two of our most interesting candidates of the week to Ayr this afternoon.
I was delighted with the run of Baasha last night, who showed the benefit of a wind operation to finish a running on fifth in a competitive Kempton handicap. Hopefully he can build on that and can continue to progress from a reasonable looking handicap rating.
Our first runner today is Dubai Frame, who tries his luck in the one mile and seven furlong 0-75 handicap at 2.40. An expensive yearling by Sixties Icon, he showed a bit of promise as a two-year-old, but took a while to find his feet this year. It turns out what he really needed was a significant step up in trip, and since trying staying distances he hasn’t looked back. He was a good third at Nottingham behind two progressive types, before just getting worn out of it late on at Newcastle in late August. The form of that race has worked out reasonably well, and Dubai Frame confirmed that he was an improving horse when bolting up at Lingfield a fortnight ago. That was probably quite a weak race, and the handicapper has hit Dubai Frame with a six pound rise in the weights to a new mark of 70. Whilst that clearly makes life tougher, I would like to think it is not beyond him. He has landed in quite a competitive little heat today, but we feel the track will play to his strengths and the forecast going looks right up his street. This is no easy task, but it will be disappointing should he not be in the thick of things at the finish.
Our other runner at Ayr is Amplification, whose profile is not too dissimilar to that of Dubai Frame, albeit at shorter trips. He was a promising sort last season at two, winning at Doncaster having run a close third to the now 95-rated and very expensive Willie John on debut. His efforts this season have been inconsistent, as he followed an encouraging comeback with a couple of poor efforts, before placing at Lingfield and finishing fifth at Newmarket. Those runs encouraged us that he might have a small handicap in him over seven furlongs from a mark in the mid-70s, and so it proved as he won in impressive style at Ffos Las at the start of last month. He was clearly improved by first time blinkers that day, and it must be noted that it was a weak 0-75 whereas today is a much stronger looking 0-90. If the blinkers work again, then he might well have a small each way chance, but his inconsistent profile, a six pound rise in the weights, and the quality of opposition, tempers enthusiasm somewhat. Hopefully he can put his best foot forward. Ben Curtis rides both of our runners at Ayr this afternoon.
Best wishes,
Ed.